Despite growing warnings that the world is veering off track, there remains a pathway to meet the 1.5 °C target set in the Paris Agreement — if governments act rapidly, ambitiously and globally.
This updated assessment draws on the latest reports from research bodies and
the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),
showing both the risks ahead and the concrete steps required to give the goal a
chance.
What the data say: Where we stand
- Global
average temperatures have now exceeded 1.5 °C above pre‑industrial levels for multiple years. According
to a recent analysis by Climate Analytics, “there
is still a chance for the world to avoid the worst ravages of climate
breakdown and return to the goal of 1.5 °C” — but
only if decisive action is taken immediately. The Guardian+2Carbon Brief+2
- The
UNEP’s latest “Emissions Gap Report” emphasises that the remaining carbon
budget to stay within 1.5 °C (without overshoot) has shrunk dramatically, and the
chances of limiting long‑term warming to that level under current policies
are very low. Carbon Brief+1
- In the
most optimistic scenario, where all current national climate plans and net‑zero
pledges are fully implemented, the world still faces warming of around 2.3 °C to
2.5 °C by 2100 — far above
1.5 °C. The Guardian+1
Why there is still hope
Even though we have likely passed the 1.5 °C
threshold (at least temporarily), the pathway to bring warming back down to
or below 1.5 °C remains technically possible. Key reasons include:
- Accelerated
growth of renewable energy, drops in costs for solar and wind, and rapid
deployment of battery/storage technologies. The Guardian+1
- The
potential for carbon removal technologies (e.g., direct air capture,
reforestation) to help reverse some of the warming, if scaled
appropriately. The Guardian
- Political
momentum building ahead of major climate meetings (e.g., COP30) and
renewed calls for more ambitious national commitments (NDCs) under the
Paris Agreement. The Guardian
What must happen — the roadmap to 1.5 °C
Research by Climate Analytics
and others lays out several core requirements:
- Rapid
fossil‑fuel phase‑out: Switching off new coal plants, retiring older
fossil‑fuel infrastructure, and limiting new oil/gas extraction. The Guardian+1
- Massive
scale‑up of renewables and electrification: Major sectors like
transport, industry, heating and cooling must be electrified, powered by
clean energy. The Guardian
- Significant
methane and non‑CO₂ pollutant reductions: Cutting methane emissions by
roughly 30 % by 2035
is noted as a critical fast‑track step. The Guardian
- Deployment
of serious carbon‑dioxide removal (CDR): To bring temps back down
after overshoot, large‑scale CDR is needed — which carries risks and high
costs. The Equation+1
- Minimising
the duration and magnitude of overshoot: If warming goes beyond 1.5 °C
even temporarily, the longer it stays there, the greater the risk of
irreversible tipping‑points. Carbon Brief
Key risks and caveats
- Overshooting
1.5 °C even temporarily increases the likelihood of triggering
tipping‑points in Earth's climate system (e.g., major ice‑sheet loss,
rainforest collapse) which may not be reversible even if temperatures
later come down. The Equation+1
- The
remaining carbon budget is extremely small. A 2025 estimate suggests only
about two years of high‑emission activity remain if we are to retain a
decent chance of staying below 1.5 °C. The Guardian
- Achieving
the pathway requires not just ambitious policy, but durable
implementation and global cooperation. Current national plans (NDCs)
are widely considered insufficient. TIME
What this means for readers and stakeholders
- For
policymakers: The window for easy cuts has closed. Decisions made this
decade will determine whether the 1.5 °C goal remains reachable.
- For
businesses and investors: The shift to clean energy and low‑carbon
systems is not optional; it is central to resilience and long‑term value.
- For
the public and civil society: While the scale of action is daunting,
individual measures (energy efficiency, less fossil fuel consumption,
support for climate policy) contribute. Also, advocacy matters: pushing
governments to raise ambition is crucial.
- For
vulnerable communities: Even if the 1.5 °C target is met, adaptation will remain essential.
Overshoot means higher impacts —
reinforcing that justice and equity must be central in climate response.
The bottom line
Yes — it is still possible to return to (or stabilise
at) 1.5 °C of warming above pre‑industrial levels, but it is no longer
the easiest, default outcome. The pathway is narrow, it demands immediate
and aggressive transition, and the margin for delay has largely disappeared.
If we act swiftly, scale up clean technologies, phase out fossil fuels and
deploy carbon‑removal solutions, the world can avoid the worst outcomes of
climate breakdown. But time is fast running out.
Here are the sources I used for the article on the 1.5 °C climate
goal:
- The
Guardian (2025, Nov 5) – “Still a chance to return to 1.5C climate
goal, researchers say”
URL: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/05/still-a-chance-to-return-to-1-point-5c-climate-goal-researchers-say - The
Guardian (2025, Jun 18) – “Only two years left of world's carbon
budget to meet 1.5C target, scientists warn”
URL: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jun/18/only-two-years-left-of-world-carbon-budget-to-meet-15c-target-scientists-warn-climate-crisis - Time
(2025) – “The World Is Failing Its 2025 Paris Agreement Target. Now
What?”
URL: https://time.com/7330905/2025-paris-agreement-climate-goal-cop30/
These sources provide the factual basis for the article,
including the latest assessments of global temperatures, carbon budgets, and
pathways to achieve the 1.5 °C climate goal.
